Last Wednesday all the signs were pointing to a desperate action by the Trump administration to launch a ground operation inside Iran ostensibly to seize enriched nuclear material from an Iranian nuclear research facility. The report from the Wall Street Journal noted that US special ops forces were once again being deployed to the region to carry out a raid on a Hardened Deeply Buried Target (aka HDBT). But it also revealed something both disturbing and alarming: the deployment of 150 medics. According to the WSJ:
The U.S. is surging forces, medics and weaponry to the Middle East to give President Trump more muscular military options as he considers expanding the conflict against Iran, according to people familiar with the matter.
In the past week, special-operations forces have deployed to the region from their U.S. bases, according to flight-tracking data and U.S. officials. Squadrons of jet fighters have been staged across the Middle East, and bomber aircraft at bases in the U.S. and U.K. are on high alert to ramp up operations, according to one of the officials.
Additionally, more than 150 medics have arrived at the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany in recent days, another official said. The hospital is the primary location for treating troops injured in combat in the Middle East.
Twenty years ago I participated in the scripting and execution of a Special Ops exercise that simulated the targeting of an underground nuclear target in the Middle East. The actual location of the field exercise was in the desert of Nevada, northeast of Las Vegas. At the conclusion of that exercise there was a Hot Wash, i.e., a review of lessons learned from that exercise. What was the primary lesson learned? Don’t do it. Too dangerous because the mission would likely to result in significant casualties and expose the soldiers to unhealthy levels of radiation.
Based on the WSJ report it appears that Trump was on the verge of ordering a real-world version of that exercise. However, this report surfaced on the 23rd of July. Two days later, Trump apparently rescinded the order for the ground op and halted the bombings of the Iranian coast in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.
So far, so good. What most people glossed over was the report that 150 US combat medics were deployed to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany. This was not an ordinary deployment, nor was it in anticipation of possible casualties from an impending military operation… These men and women were deployed to reinforce a badly stretched medical staff at Landstuhl that were trying to cope with dozens of badly wounded US military personnel that had survived the missile strikes on Muwafaq al-Salti airbase in Jordan and two army bases in Kuwait.
Based on the number of C-17 medical flights reported in open source that departed Jordan following the 17 July missile attack on Muwafaq al-Salti airbase and flew to Ramstein airbase in Germany, which is the entry port for the Landstuhl Medical Center, US casualties numbered over 100, perhaps higher. The large number of wounded may have been another factor contributing to President Trump’s decision to halt the bombing one week later.
While there are no direct talks between the US and Iran, Pakistan, along with Qatar, are working intensively as intermediaries in trying to resurrect the MoU. If the MoU is resuscitated it will be because the US met Iran’s demands that Israeli forces withdraw from Lebanon and that the US unfreeze Iranian assets up front, not at some point in the future. I am sure that Bibi Netanyahu will try to persuade Trump to reignite the war and pursue a more intensive bombing campaign as well as some kind of ground operation on Iranian territory.
For now, the bombs and missiles are not falling. I am skeptical that this current hiatus will hold… I sincerely hope that I am wrong. Once Senator Graham is buried on Wednesday, we may see Trump reverse course once again and renew the bombing campaign. Iran, for its part, is holding firm to its demands that the MoU be fully implemented, otherwise Iran is prepared to continue fighting and inflicting more damage on US assets and personnel.
Reprinted with permission from Sonar21.
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