It looks like Donald Trump, with his European lackeys in tow, is telling Egypt to screw off. After painstaking negotiations, Egypt brokered an agreement between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is now known as the Cairo Agreement. This is a technical accord reached on September 9, 2025, in Cairo between Iran and the IAEA, which allows the IAEA to inspect Iranian nuclear facilities.
Here are the main provisions of the Cairo Agreement:
- Resumption of Inspections: Iran agreed to resume cooperation with the IAEA, reopening the way for technical verification at its nuclear facilities and increased transparency measures.
- Special Reporting: Iran is required to prepare a report detailing locations and conditions of nuclear material, including highly enriched uranium, especially after incidents affecting those sites.
- Framework for Trust: The agreement lays the groundwork for rebuilding trust between Iran and the IAEA and is intended as a first step toward restarting broader nuclear negotiations.
- Regional Diplomacy: Egypt played a central role as mediator, with its foreign minister leading negotiations that started in June amid heightened regional tensions
My initial reaction was that Iran is crazy to entertain such an agreement in light of evidence that the IAEA used its previous inspections to gather intelligence on Iranian scientists who were murdered by Israel during the 12-Day War. Upon further reflection, I think I understand why Iran is taking this step: Iran is trying to play by the international rules in order to avoid the snapback sanctions under the JCPOA. Despite the Western narrative that the Islamic Republic of Iran is a lawless, terrorist state, Iran is taking the high-road by taking a concrete action to show that it is not enriching uranium to build a nuclear bomb. Unfortunately, the West does not care… It is hellbent on destroying the Islamic Republic. I think Iran is taking this step so that its BRICS partners will be able to ignore the UN sanctions and continue to do business with Iran because of the deceit of the UK, France and Germany, who failed to uphold the JCPOA by lifting sanctions on Iran ten years ago.
Let’s begin by reviewing the original JCPOA:
Overview of the JCPOA and Snapback Sanctions
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 (United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany), is an agreement aimed at limiting Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. It was endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2231 (UNSCR 2231), which terminated six prior UN sanctions resolutions (1696 (2006), 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008), 1835 (2008), and 1929 (2010) but included a “snapback” mechanism to reimpose them if Iran engages in “significant non-performance” of its commitments. This mechanism, detailed in Article 36-37 of the JCPOA and operational paragraphs 10-19 of UNSCR 2231, is a veto-proof process designed to ensure compliance without requiring new Security Council action, which could be blocked by permanent members.
The snapback is one of the JCPOA’s key enforcement tools and is set to expire on October 18, 2025 (“Termination Day”), after which the UN’s consideration of Iran’s nuclear file ends and the mechanism lapses. Only current JCPOA participants (France, UK, Germany, China, Russia; the US withdrew in 2018 and lost standing) can trigger it. As of August 28, 2025, the E3 (France, UK, Germany) initiated the process, citing Iran’s uranium enrichment and non-compliance, starting a 30-day countdown unless resolved.
How the Snapback Mechanism Works
The process is structured to automatically restore sanctions if not halted by consensus:
- Notification of Non-Performance: Any JCPOA participant notifies the UN Security Council (via the President) of Iran’s “significant non-performance,” such as exceeding uranium enrichment limits or blocking IAEA inspections. This locks in the complaint for 15 days, during which the Joint Commission (JCPOA parties) can try to resolve it.
- Referral to the Security Council: If unresolved, the complaint is referred to the Council. Within 10 days, the Council President must circulate a draft resolution to “continue” the sanctions termination (i.e., maintain relief under the JCPOA).
- 30-Day Voting Period: The Council has 30 days to adopt the continuation resolution. Adoption requires nine affirmative votes with no vetoes from permanent members (P5: US, UK, France, Russia, China). If the resolution fails (e.g., due to a veto by the triggering state or lack of votes), sanctions automatically “snap back” without further action.
- Irreversibility: Once triggered, the process cannot be easily reversed; even a veto accelerates snapback. The restored sanctions are indefinite until a new Council resolution lifts them.
This design, proposed by Russia during negotiations, bypasses traditional vetoes on new sanctions, making it a powerful deterrent.
Sanctions Reimposed by Snapback
Snapback restores all provisions from the six pre-JCPOA UN resolutions, focusing on Iran’s nuclear, missile, and proliferation activities. These include:
- Nuclear Program Restrictions:
- Prohibition on uranium enrichment, reprocessing, and heavy-water reactor activities beyond JCPOA limits.
- Ban on new nuclear facilities and transfers of nuclear-related materials, equipment, or technology to Iran.
- Requirement for IAEA monitoring; Iran must comply with safeguards.
- Missile and Arms Embargo:
- Ban on activities involving ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons (includes transfers, testing, and procurement).
- Restrictions on conventional arms transfers to or from Iran (though some expired in 2020; snapback would reinstate broader prohibitions).
- Limits on dual-use items for missiles.
- Financial and Economic Sanctions:
- Asset freezes on designated Iranian individuals, entities, and bodies (e.g., Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), nuclear scientists, and proliferation networks; over 80 entities and 200+ individuals).
- Prohibition on financial services, banking transactions, and insurance related to prohibited activities.
- Vigilance requirements for states to prevent Iranian use of their financial systems for nuclear/missile purposes.
- Travel Bans and Designations:
- Travel restrictions on listed individuals.
- Re-designation of entities connected to Iran’s nuclear, missile, or support programs.
- Monitoring and Enforcement:
- Revival of the UN Panel of Experts to investigate violations, report on compliance, and recommend enforcement.
- States must seize and inspect prohibited cargo and report to the Council.
These UN sanctions apply globally but do not automatically restore US or EU national sanctions (e.g., US secondary sanctions on oil exports remain separate). However, they signal international isolation, deterring business with Iran and potentially amplifying unilateral measures.
According to a report from Al Mayadeen, if the European states activate the snapback mechanism, then Iran will nullify the Cairo Agreement and shut the door on cooperation between the IAEA and Tehran, and bar inspections.” Not surprisingly, French President Emmanuel Macron told a reporter today that snapback sanctions against Iran are a ‘done deal’, and WILL be implemented regardless of the Iran-IAEA agreement that was signed in Cairo. So much for diplomacy. As I intimated at the outset, the West is determined to destroy the current government in Iran.
But Iran is not in this battle alone. The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Musavi, met in Moscow with Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilyov. Musavi stated that Russia’s positions at the UN and IAEA regarding Israel’s attack on Iran were “firm and positive.” He emphasized that Iran has never started a war, considering diplomacy the priority path, but in response to aggression delivered a “harsh and crushing blow” to the USA and Israel.
Russian Energy Minister Tsivilyov expressed condolences over the deaths of Iranian commanders and scientists, supported the idea of deepening joint commissions, and called to elevate Moscow and Tehran’s economic and defense cooperation to the highest level. If there are new attacks on Iran, Moscow is likely to actively assist Iran in defending itself.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is working overtime to sabotage any initiatives by the IAEA to reduce the possibility of attacks on nuclear facilities. The IAEA member states will vote on Thursday on a ban against attacking or threatening to attack any nuclear facilities under the agency’s safeguards.
The draft resolution strongly condemned the deliberate and unlawful attacks on nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards in the Islamic Republic of Iran, stating that these attacks constitute a clear violation of international law, including the UN Charter and the IAEA’s own statute.
It reiterated that all nations must refrain from attacking or threatening to attack the peaceful nuclear facilities of other countries.
It also reaffirmed the necessity of the full and effective realization of the inalienable right of all Member States for the development of research, production, and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, without discrimination, and further affirmed that any legitimate matters arising in this context shall be settled exclusively through peaceful means, through dialogue and diplomacy, being the only viable course of action, in addition to the decision to consider taking further action, as and when deemed necessary.
The draft resolution will be submitted by Iran along with China, Russia, Belarus, Nicaragua, and Venezuela at the 69th IAEA General Conference in Vienna, Austria. Washington reportedly has warned the majority of member states not to vote in favor of a resolution banning strikes on nuclear facilities. I interpret this as the US wanting to maintain the option to bomb Iranian facilities again.
Reprinted with permission from Sonar21.
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