Gentlemen cry peace, peace. But there is no peace. The war has barely begun.
Though its position is untenable, the empire cannot slink away now.
As things stand, Iran et al. have won an overwhelming strategic victory. One that cannot be undone.
And everyone that matters in the world knows this to be true.
That said, a great many people have persuaded themselves that it is the mighty United States military that has achieved an overwhelming victory, and that the Iranians are an utterly “obliterated” foe.
And yet the Iranian missiles and drones keep their schedule, with only a fraction of the opposition they encountered in early March.
Israel — that vulnerable speck of a country — is getting pounded. Hard.
US/Israel air defenses have been reduced to a skeleton shambles.
The impressive Iranian defeat of US/Israeli radar capabilities is arguably the single most notable development so far in this war.
Meanwhile, the count of American manned aircraft downed by “technical problems” continues to grow, and Iran is shooting down more cruise missiles than they did early on.
Speaking of skeleton shambles, all the US bases in the region have been systematically degraded — some more than most.
The US Fifth Fleet has been effectively evicted from the Persian Gulf, and they won’t be coming back.
The USS Poopy Gerry, flagship of the US Navy, has now managed to limp back to Souda Bay to tally the damages, and determine whether or not she can make it all the way back to Norfolk without some tug boats standing by.
Watch and see: they’ll boldly claim they will have her “ready for action” in 18 months or so. But they won’t. And sometime in about 2030, an obscure Pentagon press release will announce that the star-crossed USS Gerald R. Ford, CVN-78, will be decommissioned, purchased by Baron Trump, and turned into a dockside casino.
Anyway, the Americans are convinced the Iranians are an easy mark to fall yet again for the “negotiation sneak attack” gambit.
I think it’s more likely the Iranians are worried the Americans will “chicken out” of their proclaimed intention to use “boots on the ground” to subdue Iran and achieve full control over the Strait of Hormuz.
I think the Iranians would like nothing more than for the US military to attempt a 10k soldier amphibious / airborne attack somewhere along the Iranian coastline — probably in conjunction with a half-dozen special forces raids at various “high-value” targets.
In any case, as two amphibious ready groups (4400 Marines) and an 82nd Airborne brigade combat team (3000 light infantry) continue to advance on the theater of battle, Washington is apparently going to send the mythically competent erstwhile invisible Vice President, the redoubtable young Achilles, JD Vance.
My sense is that Vance’s mission is an inherently disingenuous token gesture.
Vance will state the inherently unacceptable American terms; the Iranians will state theirs. Both sides will glare menacingly at each other, and fly back home.
The Iranians will continue to control Hormuz and launch drones and missiles throughout the region.
US troops will arrive on the scene, and barring some unlikely epiphany of reason, the Pentagon will launch an amphibious / airborne attack that will end in blood and ashes.
At least this is the trajectory of events as I currently perceive them to be.
Things could still go from bad to worse.
Reprinted with permission from X.
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