Friday, April 17, 2020

The CNN/Cuomo Brothers Inquisition, CovidGate And The Folly Of Lockdown Nation

By David Stockman - April 17, 2020 at 10:45AM

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We are getting sick and tired of the CNN/Cuomo Brothers inquisition and the Coviddeath Cavalcade. Their relentless, morose, partisan coverage of the coronavirus pandemic is the single greatest campaign of misinformation, disinformation, propaganda, scaremongering and elitist prattle we can recall in our entire lifetime.

Indeed, Joe McCarthy’s Red Scare was a Sunday School picnic compared to CovidGate. And just as there were no commies secretly subverting America 66 years ago, there is no deathly contagion stalking the American people today and no public health emergency that remotely justifies the Lockdown Nation regime that the CNN/Cuomo Brothers and infectious disease lobby have foisted on the country with virtually no public debate or democratic accountability.

By every measure, New York is the aberrant epicenter of the Covid-19 outbreak. So what you find in the New York stats has got to be definitive, but what they’re conclusive about is the very opposite of the hysteria being propagated by the Cuomos & friends.

The New York data, in fact, show that Covid-19 almost pinpointedly attacks the old, the frail, and the medically vulnerable, not the general population.

In turn, that means that public health measures should be focused on identifying, isolating, protecting, treating and supporting the very small sub-population that is bearing the brunt of the illness and deaths, while allowing the vast bulk of the population to get back to normal social and economic life forthwith.

As we document below, the peak of new cases and deaths is now in the rear-view mirror. So what we can glean from the New York stats through April 13th reporting is definitive and will only get even more definitive in the weeks ahead.

As of 1PM today, the nationwide death count “WITH” Covid-19 was 23,529. And we go full monte with CAPs, quotes, bolds and italics for the reason that it is self-evident the virus per se didn’t kill many or most of these people: It triggered organ and function failures that were already embedded in pre-existing morbidities. And that truth is validated in spades by the New York data. As of this afternoon, New York had reported 10,834 corona deaths or 45% of the national total.

But when you look at the break-out by age categories and rates relative to population, the numbers are simply stunning:

· Under 50 years: 642 deaths or 4.9 per 100,000;

· 50-69 years: 3,174 deaths or 65 per 100,00;

· 70-79 years: 2,888 deaths or 272 per 100,000;

· 80 years+: 4,130 deaths or 1,086 per 100,000. 

In short, 18% of all the Covid-19 nationwide deaths crawling across the CNN screen today have been among New Yorkers 80 years and older; and 7,018 or 30% of national deaths and 65% of New York Covid-19 deaths have been among those 70 years and older.

To be sure, as a member of the 70+ class of New York residents, we don’t begrudge anyone the longest and happiest life possible. But we are here talking about the appropriate public policy response to a bad winter flu and suggest that when the mortality ratio for the over 80 population is 222 times higher than for those under 50 years old, then one size surely does not fit all.

Indeed, when it comes to quarantines and contact tracing, the Cuomo brigade has it assbackwards. To wit, leave the general population alone where quarantine is unnecessary and contact tracing is a ridiculous needle-in-the-haystack waste of time, and target protection measures on the vulnerable, instead.

After all, in the entire state of New York there are only 382,000 souls age 80 or over. Would it not have been far more rational for Governor Cuomo’s health department minions to track down these 382,000 vulnerable elderly rather than to shutdown the entire economy of the state in order protect 13.05 million folks under 50 years from a death risk which amounts to a minuscule 4.9 per 100,000?

In all honesty, that latter figure is a rounding error in the scheme of things. Every year in New York state, 11,760 persons under 50 years or 91.3 per 100,000 suffer an untimely death—including 3,428 from auto and other accidents and 917 from suicides.

Since the infection wave, hospitalizations and death numbers have now clearly peaked and will be falling sharply in the weeks ahead (see above), we can say with some considerable confidence that when the Covid is gone, it is doubtful whether more than 917 New Yorkers under 50—the normal year suicide population— will have died WITH the coronavirus.

That’s 7.0 souls per 100,000—and its just plain insane to got into plenary Lockdown on their account—especially because the predominant share of under 50 year-olds who have succumbed WITH the coronavirus were also suffering from one or more morbidities, especially hypertension, diabetes and COPD (see below).

Indeed, that gets us to the even more damning stats in the New York data. To wit, only 1,242 or 11% of New York’s 10,834 Covid-deaths (as of April 13) were not accompanied by at least one of the top 10 co-morbidities.

By contrast, of the 9,592 cases with these conditions, the total co-morbidities were 19,280. That means the New Yorkers among this group died with an average of 2.01 comorbidities, and some with three or four.

Again, when you stratify by age, the injunction to identify, trace, isolate and treat by indicated vulnerability could not be more dispositive. Among the 4,130 persons aged 80 or older who have died in New York,

· 2,489 or 60% had hypertension;

· 1,264 or 31% had diabetes;

· 845 had hyperlipidemia (blood disorder);

· 605 had coronary artery disease;

· 819 had dementia;

· 425 had renal disease;

· 534 had COPD;

· 366 had cancer;

· 386 had congestive heart failure. 

So Governor Cuomo, riddle us this. In lieu of your daily reality TV show and presidential campaign audition, way didn’t you mobilize the doctors and health authorities to identify these 10,834 medically imperiled among the thousands more with like and similar conditions among the 382,000 octogenarians in your state in order that every possible precaution could have been taken weeks ago?

Compared to the needle-in-the-haystack idiocy of contact tracing among the general population, the state’s doctors and health agencies do actually know the names, addresses and social security number of nearly every one of these medically vulnerable cases. That’s where the resources should have gone—not into a mindless Lockdown of the entire economy.

Indeed, when you look at the next most vulnerable category, the 1.26 million state residents aged 70-79, the story becomes even more compelling. In this age bracket, there have been 2,888 deaths WITH Covid reported as of April 13th, which, as indicated above, represents 272 per 100,000.

But, not surprisingly, 62%, 45%, 23% and 14% also had hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia and coronary artery disease, respectively. In all, this group had 5,695 comorbidities among the to 10 diseases, which amounts to 2.0 per deceased.

In sum, 7,018 or 65% of the WITH Covid deaths in New York were 70 years and older and suffered from 13,800 instances of these major underlying illnesses that could have been readily identified by the doctors and health care professionals who treat them.

Likewise, even the 3,174 deaths among aged 50-69 overwhelmingly involved 4,848 comorbidities, including 2,930 cases of hypertension and diabetes alone.

Finally, among the 642 deaths under 50 years, there were fully 634 cases of the top 10 morbidities.

That is to say, there have been virtually no deaths among the disease free population under 50. Yet hundreds of thousands have been infected and tens of thousands have become symptomatic or sick, but recovered from this novel flu in the normal fashion.

Here’s the thing. The US economy was so weakened by 30 years of debt, speculation and money-printing that its own economic “immune” system was at ultra low ebb.

So the Lockdown Folly will prove to be far more destructive than would have otherwise been the case. So now is the time for the Donald to do something constructive for once, and face-down the CNN/Cuomo Brothers and infectious disease lobby and stop cold the economic bleeding cure they have foisted on the US economy in the name of public health.

And now is the moment. During the last few days, the death rates have plunged in most of the nation, and clearly even New York has turned the corner as this chart makes abundantly clear.

But for want of doubt, here is the the nationwide gain in new cases WITH Covid-19. It is now down nearly 26% from its Good Friday peak, after accelerating in early April:

April 5-April 14 trend: 25,974, 28,752, 30,437, 30,130, 34,346, 34,617, 29,591, 28,983, 24,948, 25,699

So let us repeat: The New York Covid epicenter has provided the pretext for the present nationwide hysteria and insensible acts of economic suicide.

But its actual data show why the Lockdown should be ended now. To wit, the 1.64 million residents of New York over 69 years old account for just 0.5% of the US population, but have suffered 30% of the nation’s deaths WITH Covid.

It is therefore time to tell the economy-wreaking Cuomo Brothers and their political cohorts and media megaphones to stand down and let America get back to work, and the doctors and health professionals refocused on the real victims of this nasty virus.

Reprinted with permission from David Stockman's Contra Corner.


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