Donald Trump garnered some major political optics yesterday as he signed his Gaza Peace Plan, with a raft of European, Asian and Arab leaders sitting in the cheap seats watching the spectacle. But who has a signing of a peace agreement when neither of the two parties to the conflict are present? This is more than a bad joke… this is a scam. I can understand holding a funeral for the dearly departed even if the corpse ain’t present, but what took place Monday in Sharm El-Sheik was more like a royal wedding without a bride or groom present… Hell, neither chose to attend even via video conference.
I can guess why Bibi didn’t show… The majority of those attending had recently granted official recognition to Palestine as a state and Bibi did not want any photos of him shaking hands with the lot. Israeli officials, speaking to the Hebrew press, continue to insist that there will never be a Palestinian state.
Hamas, for its part, is the largest of the 14 Palestinian resistance groups. Even if Hamas agreed to disarm — which it will not do in my judgment — that still leaves 13 other groups, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
Phase I, i.e. the exchange of hostages for jailed Palestinians, will conclude this week. I suspect that Hamas will not be able to return all of the remains because some of the Israeli hostages are buried under rubble as a result of attacks by the Israeli Air Force. I don’t discount the possibility that Bibi will use that as justification to return to the bombing campaign in hopes of forcing the Palestinians to vacate Gaza.
The wild card is Donald Trump. Many of the staunchest pro-Israel supporters in the West wrongly interpret today’s showing of the various Arab, Muslim, West Asian and European leaders as proof that there is a consensus on disarming Hamas. Yet, as I noted above, the majority of leaders present are on the record insisting that there will be a Palestinian state. I am pretty sure that Donald Trump told them what they wanted to hear, i.e. that he will push Israel to accept a Palestinian state, and I am also certain that he told his Zionist pals the exact opposite. So, regardless of what Trump does, one of those groups will be angry and disappointed.
Then there is Iran… I think there is a deal that could be made, e.g., Iran recognizes Israel in exchange for the creation of an independent Palestinian state. The Zionists would reject that, but the majority of the world would enthusiastically embrace that solution, especially if the US agrees to lead the charge. Don’t get your hopes up.
Judging from history, there is no chance that this agreement produces the peace that Donald Trump envisions. Since the 1967 Six-Day War, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has seen numerous ceasefires (also called truces, hudnas, or armistices), primarily involving Israel and Palestinian groups like the PLO, Fatah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). These are often mediated by the UN, Egypt, Qatar, or the US and tend to follow escalations such as wars, intifadas, or Gaza operations. “Declaration” typically refers to formal agreements between the parties, though some are unilateral or UN-imposed.
Counting them precisely is challenging due to varying definitions—e.g., short humanitarian pauses vs. longer truces—and overlaps (e.g., the 1973 Yom Kippur War ceasefire applied to Egypt/Syria but had direct Palestinian implications). Based on comprehensive timelines from sources like CFR, Al Jazeera, Wikipedia, and IMEU, there have been at least 12 major ceasefires declared between Israelis and Palestinians since 1967. This excludes minor local pauses or non-Palestinian-specific Arab-Israeli truces (e.g., 1982 Lebanon). Many lasted days to months before violations or breakdowns, often due to rocket fire, airstrikes, or failed negotiations.
Key Insights:
Total Count: 12 major instances, but some sources (e.g., IMEU fact sheets) list 20+ if including shorter Gaza operations (e.g., 2019, 2022 PIJ clashes) or intra-Palestinian truces with Israeli involvement.
Average Duration: ~2–3 years for pre-2008 truces; <1 year post-2008, reflecting Gaza’s volatility.
Common Patterns: Most fail due to mutual accusations of violations (e.g., rockets vs. incursions). Gaza-focused ones (post-2007) are shorter, tied to Hamas rule and blockades. Broader ones (e.g., Oslo) lasted longer but didn’t resolve core issues like borders/settlements.
In light of this history, the chances that this peace deal will endure is slim.
Reprinted with permission from Sonar21.
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